Ma Feeling the Heat | The Diplomat

今天在網路上看到這一篇文章，很有意思；讀的時候興起了我強烈的慾望想把它翻譯出來，不但可以分享給更多的人，順便也可以再練一練英文。

這是一篇刊登在"The Diplomat" 網路期刊上面，談論有關馬政府面對明年總統大選的反應；它的標題是Ma Feeling the Heat (馬感受到熱度），意義是馬英九已經感受到有一點＂不是那麼舒服了＂，言下之意就是＂沒那麼好玩，不能躺著選就會上＂的意思。

原文的出處是這裡。文章的全文如下，中文部分是我的翻譯：


A new poll shows Taiwan President Ma Ying-jou trailing his DPP opponent. Inequality, unemployment and close ties to China are complicating his bid for re-election next year.
一個新的民調顯示，台灣的總統馬英九落後了他的民進黨對手。社會不平等、失業，以及與中國的過度親密正在把他明年的連任搞得日趨困難。

A crack team of Taiwanese paratroopers hurtled to Earth from 5,000 feet this month. Their mission was simple: land in a targeted area in front of nationalist Kuomintang President Ma Ying-jou as he received military units marking the Republic of China’s 100th　anniversary.
在這個月，一個由台灣特種部隊所組成的傘兵小組從五千呎高空，從天而降。他們的任務很簡單：降落在一個特別標定的地方，就在中國國家主義者、國民黨的總統馬英九面前，來祝賀中華民國第一百年的國慶。

But like most things relating to Taiwanese politics, that’s easier said than done, and by the time Ma’s look of pride had given way to bemusement, six of the team had landed safely and the remaining six were unaccounted for – scattered to the wind. A few ended up on rooftops, some landed in an elementary school a few kilometres away, and one landed on a group of onlookers outside the Presidential Office.
但是就像是許多與台灣人的政治有關的事情一樣--老是說的比做的簡單，而此時馬英九原本自信的表情也已顯露出疑惑，傘兵中的六個安全降落在預定的地方而另外六個則是出乎意料，被風給吹散了。一些人最後跑到了屋頂上，部分的人則落到了幾公里一外的一所小學，其中一人掉到了總統府外的一群觀眾當中。

It was a fitting, if somewhat embarrassing metaphor for Taiwan’s fractious political landscape and the deep divisions that will likely decide the winner of January’s upcoming presidential elections.
真是剛好，如果這是對台灣劍拔弩張、涇渭分明的政治情勢而言算是一種令人難堪的隱喻的話，這就是告訴世人明年一月的總統大選大勢已定，贏家是誰已經很清楚了。

Aside from the paratroopers, Ma must also be bemused by the polls, which have him facing the real possibility of losing in January's presidential election.
不管空降傘兵好了，馬英九肯定也對一個民調感到十分困惑，這個民調令他面對一個真正的可能性--輸掉明年一月的總統大選。

A survey conducted by Taiwan's Global Views Survey Research Center found that Democratic Progressive Party chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen, a 55-year-old former vice premier who is the first female candidate for top office in any modern Chinese state, has a slight lead on Ma, by 36 percent to 35.8 percent.
一個由遠見社會經濟研究調查中心所做的研究顯示，民進黨主席蔡英文，一個現年五十五歲的前任行政院副院長，一個在泛華人世界中首見的女性總統參選人，已經微幅領先馬英九，36% 對 35.8%。

It’s a far cry from the last elections three and a half years ago, when Ma swept to power by 17 percentage points – an unheard of margin since free elections began in 1996. But that was at the death knell of the contentious Chen Shui-bien administration, which was wracked by corruption scandals and which drove US-Taiwan relations to all-time lows over Chen’s often combative stance towards China.
與三年半以前極為不同，當時，馬英九以前所未有的百分之十七的優勢橫掃選票，贏得了大選，這是自從1996年有自由選舉以來所從未有的懸殊比數；但是這是因為當時有極受爭議貪汙醜聞纏身的陳水扁事件，而當時的美台關係也因陳水扁經常與中國強硬對峙而降至史上最低點。

Since then, Ma has worked hard to thaw relations and focus on greater economic ties with its antagonist 180 kilometres across the Taiwan Strait, which it split from following Mao Zedong’s routing of Chiang Kai-shek’s ROC forces in 1949. Taipei and Beijing signed the landmark Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) in June 2010, and have since ratified 15 economic, transport and tourism agreements.
從那時開始，馬英九努力與敵人修補關係，並且致力於建立更緊密的經濟合作；180公里寬的海峽另一邊隔著的敵人，是遵循毛澤東路線而與蔣介石的中華民國勢力於1949年分道揚鑣至今。台北與北京於2010年一月簽署了劃時代的ECFA(Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, 經濟合作框架協議)，從而通過了15個與經濟、交通與觀光的協議。
But many analysts believe Ma’s cosier relationship with the mainland may hurt the incumbent with younger voters who perceive his willingness to deal with China as a sign he is bartering the island away and weakening its negotiating stance, particularly as the mainland occupies significantly greater economic and diplomatic space in the region.
可是有許多分析者認為馬英九與大陸的較寬鬆關係可能會讓人覺得他有失職責，特別是對較年輕的選民而言，這些年輕選民認為馬英九與中國相處的意願是因為馬英九正在出賣台灣給中國，並且正在削弱雙方對峙的籌碼，特別是當大陸在區域中占據了顯然更大的經濟優勢與外交空間。

This time up, Ma is also facing an opponent who has galvanized the youth vote and painted the island’s impressive economic indicators as Trojan Horses which don’t reflect the reality of the average voter. Tsai has also been effective at working Taiwan’s almost invisible dividing line running through the middle of the island by building stronger support in the traditional DPP stronghold in the south, while making inroads into the centre of the country, where most predict the election will be won. The KMT, as usual, should carry northern Taiwan and Taipei handily.
這一次，馬英九同時也要面對的敵手，已經激起了廣大年輕族群，並且點出了台灣醒目的經濟成就其實根本無法反映大眾的困苦現況，是屠城的木馬。蔡英文同時有效地跨越了橫跨台灣中部那條幾乎看不見的線--這條線的南部民進黨本有強大的支持，蔡建立了更強的擁護；同時在中部蔡英文攻城掠地，在這裡多數人都預測蔡英文會贏；至於北部，如同以往中國國民黨將會輕易拿下勝利。

‘Ma’s polls started to drop over competence issues and his handling of Typhoon Morakot in 2009. Since then, income disparities, job uncertainties and socio-economic issues such as increased outward investment to China when jobs for young people are scarce have also hurt,’ says DPP spokesperson Hsiao Bi-khim. ‘The KMT likes to point to its GDP growth rate, but that’s a figure driven by the rich and enjoyed by them also. The wealth disparity in Taiwan is out of hand.’
"馬英九的民調數據開始下降，源自於能力問題以及他在2009年莫拉克風災當中的表現。從那時開始，貧富差距、失業疑慮以及諸如對中國投資逐日增加但是年輕人卻職缺日趨減少等等社會經濟問題也影響了馬的民調。"民進黨發言人蕭美琴指出，"國民黨老是喜歡提出GDP國民生產毛額增長數據，但是那是有錢人所創造出來的數字，成果也是由富人所享受。貧富不均的問題在台灣已經是一發不可收拾了。"

Still, on paper, many of Taiwan’s recent economic achievements are certainly impressive. GDP growth for 2010 came in at 10.88 percent, the world’s fifth highest and a solid number given the island’s reliance on high-tech exports to a slowing United States and Europe. This year, Taiwan also racked up record export figures. It enjoys a healthy trade surplus, had the world’s fifth largest foreign reserves as of the end of August, was ranked sixth in overall competitiveness by Switzerland’s International Institute for Management Development, and was named the second-best investment destination in Asia by US-based research unit Business Environment Risk Intelligence.
一直到現在，在報紙上，許多台灣的經濟表現仍然令人印象深刻。GDP成長率在2010年達到了10.88%，是全世界第五高，一大部分是台灣高度依賴的高科技產品輸出，到經濟成長緩慢的美國和歐洲。而今年，台灣依舊打破了出口的紀錄。台灣擁有健康的貿易出超，世界第五高的外匯存底(到今年八月底為止)，被瑞士洛桑管理學院 (IMD, International Institute for Management Development) 評為全世界競爭力第六高的國家，並且被美國商業環境風險評估公司(BERI, Business Environment Risk Intelligence) 評定為亞洲第二個適合投資的目標。

‘We know the most serious problem is the inequality between the poor and the rich. But this problem is everywhere. We have moved to introduce a luxury tax and property taxes to slow property prices, which have been effective over the past quarter’ says Francis Yi-hua Kan, KMT spokesperson. ‘EFCA will prove to be even more valuable down the road because it will open up new free trade agreements that were blocked before we had a China deal, such as the Singapore agreement and more agreements with other ASEAN members.’
"我們知道最嚴重是貧富不均的問題，但是這是到處都有的。我們已經行動，採取了諸如奢侈稅和財產稅的方法來減低財物價格，在上一季這已經開始起了效用" 國民黨發言人甘逸驊 (Francis Yi-hua Kan)表示。"ECFA將來會證明這是更有價值的方法，因為這將會帶來一些全新的自由貿易協定，而這些自由貿易協定在我們與中國有約定之前是被封鎖的，例如與新加坡之間的協定和更多的東南亞國協(ASEAN, The Association of Southeast Asian Nations)之間的更多協定。"

But even when Taiwan's GDP grew and labour productivity rose 16 percent in 2010, labour costs for employers fell 11 percent, an indication that workers weren’t receiving a fair share of the gains they were helping create. Real wages have actually fallen by about 4 percent from 12 years ago, and that, coupled with soaring house prices and rising unemployment have left many first time voters in particular out in the cold.
只是當台灣的GDP成長的同時，勞工的產值增加了16%，而勞力的成本則下降了11%，這是一個指標，指出了勞工並未從經由他們雙手所創造的經濟的成長中得到公平的收益。實質的工資所得事實上與十二年前相比反倒下降了4%，並且，伴隨了飛漲的房屋價格以及日益升高的失業率，這些問題已經使得許多的首投族感到背棄了。

Ma’s cause has also not been helped by People First Party Chairman James Soong’s decision to throw his presidential hat into the ring last month. Soong, a former KMT stalwart who split from the party when he lost his bid for the presidential party ticket in 2000, is likely to split the KMT vote as he did in 2000, when he handed a victory to Chen.
馬英九的事業隨著親民黨主席宋楚瑜在上個月宣布參選總統開始又被幫了一個倒忙。宋楚瑜，當年國民黨的要角，因為在2000年國民黨黨內總統候選人資格初選失利因而出走，似乎又要再把國民黨選票給再分割一次，如同他在2000年所做的事情一模一樣，當時因為他的關係，勝利由陳水扁獲得。

‘Ma came in on a landslide because of the Chen debacle. But he’s dealing with a new adversary in Tsai, who is a much stronger candidate than anything that has been produced by the DPP,’ says Yeh-lih Wang, chair of political science at National Taiwan University. ‘While his biggest advantages are cross-strait relations and being an incumbent, that can also be a double-edge sword. Soong will also siphon off votes from the KMT. Although Soong knows he can’t win, he’s positioning himself as kingmaker in the legislature.’
"馬英九是靠著陳水扁的全面崩潰而起的，但是他現在要對付的是蔡英文，是個比起任何時候民進黨所推出過的候選人都還要強的總統候選人"台灣大學政治系主任王業立指出，"當馬英九最大的長處是處理海峽兩岸關係，甚至成了他的唯一責任，這就成了兩面刃。宋楚瑜將會吸走國民黨的票源，雖然宋楚瑜明知他不會贏，但是他所圖的其實是立法院院長的位置。"

But as always, the big brother looms particularly large. China, which was holding celebrations of its own to mark the 100th anniversary of the Xinhai Revolution that started with a military uprising in the Chinese city of Wuchang and led to the collapse of the Qing Dynasty, is widely viewed as favouring Ma. But that also doesn’t sit well with voters, who are anaemic to the idea of Beijing meddling in Taiwan’s domestic politics.
但是就像每次都一樣，大哥總是可以把問題搞得特別大。中國，正在自行慶祝那所謂的"辛亥革命一百年"，那個在一個叫做武昌的中國城市，經由武裝起義開始，最後導致整個清朝覆滅的革命，通常被認為是有利於馬英九；但是那些對北京直接插手台灣內部政治的投票人卻未必領情。

‘Tsai represents hope for the future, has solid policies and is substance over flash,’ says DPP spokesman Lin Chun-hsien. ‘The KMT says be patient. But if we can’t blame them for our problems, who can we blame? Last time I checked we were living in a democracy.’
"蔡英文代表的是對未來的希望，有著堅定的政策並且言之有物"民進黨發言人林俊憲表示。"國民黨說請大家要有耐心，但是如果我們不能因為這些問題則為國民黨，那我們要怪誰？上次我查了一下，確定我們的確是活在民主時代。"